Concerns are rising in the US about declining birth rates and their potential economic impact. However, demographers argue that population decline isn't imminent or catastrophic. The narrative rests on misunderstandings: misinterpreting fertility rates, overstating low birth rates' impact on population growth, and ignoring economic policies' role. While the total fertility rate is low (1.6 in 2024), the average number of children women have had remains stable around two. Economic growth is influenced more by economic policies and labor market conditions than demographics, with immigration also playing a crucial role. Long-term population projections are highly uncertain.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.