Tariffs Fuel Recession Fears: Experts Weigh In | JQJO

Rising tariffs are increasing recession fears. Goldman Sachs raised the US recession probability to 45%, while JP Morgan estimates a 60% global recession risk due to tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed these concerns, citing a strong jobs report. A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, officially declared by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, not the government. Recessions vary in length, with the US averaging one every 6.5 years since WWII. While two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are often used as a benchmark, the NBER considers various factors before declaring a recession.