As super El Nino strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Ninos
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A study published Thursday in the journal Science found that El Niño events are now more than 36% stronger than before the Industrial Revolution, with a 16% jump in just the last 40 years. Researchers analyzed 1,000 years of temperature records preserved in living and fossil corals from the Galápagos Islands. The intensification coincides with postindustrial warming and exceeds natural variability, leading the authors to conclude human-caused climate change is the leading explanation. Lead author Julia Cole of the University of Michigan said the increase in El Niño strength closely parallels global temperature rise from fossil fuel burning. The findings come as the 2026 El Niño, which formed months ago, is forecast to become the strongest on record. Forecasters give a nearly 70% chance of a historic event peaking between October and December. External expert Boris Worm called El Niño “the most violent aspect of climate variability worldwide.” The study stops short of formal attribution but leaves warming as the most likely culprit
More context
Timeline
- · On mid-1800s: Industrial Revolution began, marking preindustrial baseline for study comparison.
- · On 1982-1983: Super El Niño destroyed 97 percent of Galápagos coral cover.
- · On 1998: Strong El Niño contributed to record global temperatures that year.
- · On 2016: Another intense El Niño helped set global temperature record.
- · On 2024: Strong El Niño contributed to hottest year on record.
- Present Events:
- · On August 27, 2026: Science journal published coral study linking warming to El Niño.
- · On August 27, 2026: AP reported El Niños 36% stronger than preindustrial era.
- · On August 2026: NOAA gives over 90% chance of very strong El Niño fall-winter.
- · On August 2026: Current El Niño weekly temperature reached 2.7°C above normal.
- · On August 2026: Forecasters predict 69% chance of strongest El Niño since 1950.
- Future Expectations:
- · El Niño expected to peak October-December 2026 as potentially strongest recorded.
- · Event likely to push global temperatures 1.7°C to 1.8°C above preindustrial.
- · Strong El Niño may cause severe heatwaves, floods, and droughts worldwide.
- · Impacts could cost trillions in damage and push millions into hunger.
Why it matters
Immediate US impact: Stronger El Niño threatens US with extreme weather and flooding. Possible long-term US impact: Rising El Niño intensity escalates disaster costs and infrastructure strain. Most affected groups: Coastal states, farmers, insurers, emergency managers, and vulnerable low-income communities. What readers should prioritise: Verify forecasts via NOAA and prepare for regional weather shifts.
Coverage notes
Left: Highlights human-caused warming as primary driver of worsening El Niños. Center: Reports study findings with attribution caveats and expert commentary neutrally. Right: Emphasizes study limitations and questions direct causation link to warming.
Primary report
trigger_description: Science journal published coral study on El Niño intensification.
Sources
JQJO Editorial Desk · Human reviewed · AI assisted. Report a correction.
