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Turkey prices are spiking ahead of Thanksgiving as bird flu shrinks the U.S. flock to a near 40-year low and strains the supply chain. Wholesale costs are up 75% from October 2024, and Purdue University expects retail prices to average about $2.05 per pound in November, roughly 25% higher than last year. Timing matters: retailers buying on the spot market face steeper costs, while big chains are using discounted dinner bundles to lure shoppers. Producers are cutting jobs, and while USDA sees production improving in 2026, prices may stay elevated. New USDA data is paused amid a government shutdown.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.