With government data largely halted by the shutdown, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its short‑term rate Wednesday for the second time this year, and financial markets consider a December cut a near‑certainty. Officials say the current 4.1% rate restrains growth, even as inflation remains elevated but not accelerating. An ADP gauge suggests hiring picked up after summer weakness, complicating the outlook. The Fed may also announce an end to shrinking its $6.6 trillion securities holdings, a move that could slightly ease longer-term borrowing costs.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.