US Recession Risk Rises Amidst Escalating Tariffs | JQJO

Goldman Sachs has raised its US recession probability to 35% within the next year, up from 20%, primarily due to escalating tariffs. The bank cites a decline in consumer and business confidence and increased inflation estimates. They predict a 1% GDP growth in 2025 and 4.5% unemployment. President Trump's aggressive tariff policies are the main catalyst, potentially leading to a significant tax increase. While Goldman Sachs still anticipates the economy avoiding a downturn, other forecasts are less optimistic.