US job growth expected to rebound in August; unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1%

U.S. nonfarm payroll growth is projected to rebound in August following a July contraction, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Estimates anticipate an addition of 56,000 jobs, up from a loss of 23,000 in July, while the national unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%. Labor market momentum has slowed significantly following early spring gains, hampered by broader economic friction, including elevated oil prices, persistent supply chain disruptions, and import tariffs enacted in 2025. While seasonal rebounds in local government education and leisure sectors are expected to support job numbers, overall growth remains constrained by administrative policy shifts. Economists highlight that the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants creates a drag of 15,000 to 160,000 jobs. Annual wage growth is expected to cool to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its September meeting.