BUSINESS

Qatar Strait disruptions threaten 2026 global LNG supply

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Shell PLC, in its LNG Outlook 2026, warns that global liquefied natural gas trade could stagnate or even contract in 2026 because of severe shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint, vital for exports from Qatar and other Middle Eastern producers, has seen tanker movements sharply reduced since hostilities escalated between a U.S.-Israeli coalition and Iran. Shell estimates about 20% of the world’s monthly LNG supply has been effectively shut in, driving spot prices higher and unsettling energy markets. The company notes that new North American liquefaction capacity and better plant performance elsewhere are partly offsetting lost volumes.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.

Timeline of Events

2025 Global LNG trade reaches 422 million tonnes
Late 2025 Middle East conflict significantly escalates
Late 2025 Strait shipping hazards sharply increase
Early 2026 Around one-fifth LNG supply shut in
Early 2026 Tankers halt or reroute around Hormuz
Early 2026 Shell prepares LNG Outlook 2026 report
This summer Key deadline for Strait normalization
2026 Potential first annual LNG trade contraction

Why This Matters to You

If you're a homeowner or business that relies on natural gas, brace for potential price hikes. The Middle East conflict is disrupting a key LNG supply route. This could drive up your energy costs. Keep an eye on your utility bills and consider energy-saving measures.

The Bottom Line

About 20% of global LNG supply is currently blocked, and it's shaking up energy markets. While North America and other regions are stepping up, they may not fully offset the loss. If you know someone in the energy sector, it's worth forwarding this to them.