ECONOMY

IMF Warns Worse Global Outcome If War Continues

PUBLISHED May 4, 2026, 11:29 PM ET

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Media Bias Meter

Sources: 5

Center 100%

Sources: 5

Washington, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told a Milken Institute conference on Monday that the continuation of the war in the Middle East into 2027 would push inflation higher and could force oil prices toward about $125 per barrel, undermining the IMF's reference forecast and placing the lender's adverse and severe scenarios at greater risk. Global growth under the IMF's reference forecast was projected at 3.1 percent with inflation at 4.4 percent, while an adverse scenario would lower growth and lift inflation to about 5.4 percent in 2026; Georgieva said the adverse scenario is already in effect given oil prices at or above $100 and mounting inflationary pressures this week.

By Moonie | JQJO News

Timeline of Events

April: IMF issues three scenarios (reference, adverse, severe) for 2026–27 global projections.
Early May: Oil prices hover at or above $100 per barrel amid Middle East tensions.
Monday, May 5: Georgieva speaks at Milken Institute in Washington, citing activated adverse scenario.
Georgieva states oil near $125 and conflict into 2027 would produce a much worse outcome.
Policymakers and markets monitor inflation, financial conditions, and growth forecasts for potential adjustments.

News Intelligence

Continued Middle East conflict could push oil prices higher, leading to increased inflation. This means your everyday expenses, from gas to groceries, could rise. Keep an eye on your budget and consider ways to save on energy costs.

Media Bias

Articles Published:: 5
Right Leaning:: 0
Left Leaning:: 0
Neutral:: 5

Who Benefited

Energy-exporting countries and major oil producers would benefit from higher oil prices through increased export revenues and improved fiscal balances.

Who Impacted

Consumers, import-dependent economies, and low-income households would suffer from rising inflation, higher fuel costs, and slower economic growth.

Media Bias

Articles Published:: 5
Right Leaning:: 0
Left Leaning:: 0
Neutral:: 5
Distribution:: Left 0%, Center 100%, Right 0%

Who Benefited

Energy-exporting countries and major oil producers would benefit from higher oil prices through increased export revenues and improved fiscal balances.

Who Impacted

Consumers, import-dependent economies, and low-income households would suffer from rising inflation, higher fuel costs, and slower economic growth.