The U.S. Supreme Court signaled skepticism toward the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs, prompting prediction markets to cut the odds of the policy surviving to 25% from about 50%. Stocks rebounded after the hearing, even as Treasury yields climbed. An order to refund billions in duties—an outcome Wolfe Research says lacks much legal basis—could swell federal debt and pressure equities. Unpredictability may persist if Trump invokes other executive powers. “Uncertainty and unusual” define 2025, said Mitchell Goldberg, who called any ruling against the administration a bump rather than an endpoint for tariff policy.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.