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As off-year contests open the midterm season, President Trump has mostly looked elsewhere, touring Asia and offering only a late, lukewarm nod in Virginia. Yet his shadow looms. In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli has recast himself with Trump-style appeals, betting 2024 gains — including sharp shifts in majority-Hispanic townships — will hold without Trump atop the ticket. In New York City, Trump has weighed in on the mayor’s race, even threatening funding cuts if Zohran Mamdani wins. And in California, Gavin Newsom’s likely redistricting win and $114 million haul could flip five House seats and build a 2028 foundation.

Prepared by Lauren Mitchell and reviewed by editorial team.