Iran's June 2025 conflict with Israel, though short of a regional war, exposed the regime's profound weakness. Military setbacks and a lack of public support during the conflict revealed diminished hard and soft power. Internal discontent, evidenced by low election turnout and widespread dissatisfaction, persists. The government's response has been characteristically repressive, targeting ethnic minorities, particularly Kurds, echoing past patterns of violence and suppression. This leaves Iran vulnerable and internally fractured.

Prepared by Rachel Morgan and reviewed by editorial team.