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The OECD significantly lowered its 2025 US economic growth forecast to 1.6%, down from 2.2%, citing Trump's trade war and resulting tariffs. Global growth is also projected to slow to 2.9% this year and next, a downgrade from previous predictions. The report highlights increased uncertainty, weakened trade and investment, and diminished consumer and business confidence due to the tariffs. The OECD warns of greater economic disruption than during the 2018-19 US-China trade war and notes the potential for increased inflation.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.