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A new study warns that declining childhood vaccination rates could lead to measles becoming endemic in the US within 25 years, potentially causing up to 51 million illnesses. Currently, nearly 900 measles cases have been reported in 2024. The model, published in JAMA, projects that a 10% decline in vaccination rates would result in 11.1 million measles cases over 25 years, while a 5% increase would limit cases to 5,800. Researchers emphasize the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to prevent the resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases. The study acknowledges limitations in its homogenous distribution of data across states.

Prepared by Olivia Bennett and reviewed by editorial team.