The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2025, down from 3.3%, citing President Trump's tariffs and resulting uncertainty. U.S. growth is projected at 1.8%, significantly below earlier estimates, with a 40% recession probability. China's growth is also reduced. The IMF highlights the tariffs' widespread impact, disrupting supply chains and affecting nations globally. Higher inflation is anticipated in the U.S., while China's government spending is expected to partially offset the economic blow. The IMF also warned of increased global financial stability risks.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.