The IMF warned of a heightened US recession risk due to Trump's trade war, downgrading growth forecasts for G7 nations and major economies like China and India. The fund cut its US growth forecast to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.7%, citing escalating tariffs and uncertainty. A 40% recession probability for the US is projected, emphasizing the need for resolving trade tensions to avoid further economic damage. The IMF also highlighted the potential for higher inflation and the importance of central bank independence.

Prepared by Christopher Adams and reviewed by editorial team.